Outlook for salmon fishery 2011 in the Russian Far East
More specifically, the scientists have forecasted the total salmon catch at 425,437 metric tons.
The fishery forecast traditionally covers evaluation of actual catches of the previous year. The last year the allowable harvest of Pacific salmons in the inshore waters was defined at 337,400 tonnes, the figure increased by 36,000 tonnes in the course of the season. Harvest of all salmon species in 2010 accounted for 96.2% of the TAC and amounted to 324,632 tonnes less driftnet catches in the Russian EEZ (16,400 tonnes).
In the year 2011 more than one half of the recommended catch belongs to pink salmon, the most difficult salmon for forecasting. The species has a short lifetime, as it spends the whole year in the sea and has the weakest homing for the salmon species. Therefore, along with annual calculations of salmon fry volumes in the rivers and the abundance of the producers' runs, Vladivostok scientists also carry out marine surveys for the sake of higher accuracy of the forecast. Research activities in 2010 enabled the scientists to recommend the pink salmon harvest in 2011 at 264,419 tonnes.
Chum salmon takes the second place in recommended catch volumes with its 99,700 tonnes.
Thanks to stably high runs of sockeye to Kamchakta its potential harvest in 2011 is defined at 32,332 tonnes.
Chinook stocks remain fairly small and its catch in 2011 has been recommended at a little more than 1000 tonnes.
Stably low stocks of masu salmon have limited its potential catch at 68 tonnes.
The salmon season in 2011 is expected to develop in keeping with the season 2007 as the recent odd year 2009 was historically abnormal with its record catch of more than 535,000 tonnes.
The weather forecast for May 2011 provides for movement of arctic cyclones to the northwest of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea. In June 2011 they expect short cyclones in the south of the Sea of Okhotsk and in the waters of the South Kuriles. Mild arctic cyclones in July 2011 will cover the north of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea, though the situation will depend on the North Pacific anticyclone. In August 2011 the scientists expect activation of cyclones and worsening weather conditions in the East Sakhalin subarea, North Okhotsk shelf and east part of the Bering Sea. During the whole month the Sea of Japan will stay under depression with continental cyclones. In September 2011 surface cyclones are expected in East Kamchatka and in most of the Bering Sea, on some days southeast cyclones may grow storm strong.