Developments in key markets for fish products from Russian and American Pacific fisheries as per mid-November 2011

As per the second week of November 2011 APO fishery has been finished, and substantial part of quota has been left in the water. As Japanese and American experts thought, substantial enough to make necessity of the TAC cut clear to at least part of those who make decision in TAC for 2012-2013. Actually, it turned out not THAT effective. The plan team has revised ABC recommendation up from 1,088 th. MT to 1,220. Of course, the final TAC will be set by the Council in December, but this is the first time ever they set a higher ABC level compared to science recommendation, reports http://www.megafishnet.com/ with reference to Russian, American and Japanese sources.

The question of real reasons for non-taking increased 2011 APO quota is still open.  Among other opinions there is a cynical one that the volume taken was just enough for keeping price high.  The "plot theory" is always convenient, as it doesn't need proof, and everybody declining it is automatically treated as the plot participant. At least some Council (NPFMC) members openly say they plan to insist on serious quota cutting.  Some experts believe even cut quotas will not be taken as salmon by-catch restrictions plan to be severe.

As for results of US APO fishery 2011, it has been closed everywhere and total catch at BSAI was just 1.197 MT plus 77.6 th. MT at GOA. As predicted, the greatest problems were faced by inshore sector (33.6 th. MT) and catcher-processors (18.36 th. MT).  Totally, about 70 th.MT of quota was not taken and it caused shortage of products supply.  For example, year roe production was just 19.3 th.MT- 17.5% more than 2010, taking into account that quota had been increased 50%.  The greater part of the increase took place in B season. 

Roe production growth in B-season strongly impressed market specialists, as it was the fastest growing product in the season - 65% to 2010, much better than even PBO fillet.  Roe recovery rate was 0.5% against 0.45% in 2010, and it was the greatest surprise.

APO catch and production at Alska as of Nov, 12

However, main roe producer this year was Russia - both by quantity and quality. As the result total supply of Russian roe to Japan was 23.3 th. MT this year.  Supply to South Korea was 6.1 th. MT - giving together 29.5 th. MT while American supply to the countries was less than 15 th. MT.

Information on APO surimi production at Alaska is treated by many Japanese experts as a disappointment. Total production in B season increased not even 40%, but less than 39% and seasonal production was just 84.2 th. MT, though in A season the situation looked more or less normal, and production increased 50%.  As a result yearly pollock surimi production increased 43% and didn't reach 150 th. MT (actually - 147.4).  It was a strong punch at some Japanese importers who tried to return to pollock surimi because of shortage of itoyori product in India and Thailand.  They didn't find any free product at all.  Another reason was the fact that greater volume of the product was low grade surimi.  The major market for it traditionally is located in Europe and Korea.

Totally, pollock surimi import to Japan by October increased just 12%.  Market specialists think that there is shortage of middle (KA, etc.) and high (SA, FA) grades by November as production turned out to be even more limited than supposed.

Fishmeal production from US pollock didn't increase as much as supposed - just 38% (53 th. MT).  Total production increase of the other products was just 31%, that looks really weak in comparison with quota growth more than 50%.  At the same time mince production increased 45% (31.0 th. MT). and HG - even cut 5% (to 57.0 th. MT). 

APO Fillet

Fillet production was high this year, that co-relates with good market conditions in Europe.  B season fillet production increased 42%, but taking into account active growth in A-season, total volume comprised 166.2 th. MT - increase to 2010 55 th. MT, about 50%.  The greater part of the volume as usual was PBO for European market.  It's volume in B season increased 60% (total 64.7 th. MT) and yearly volume reached 115.2 th. MT (73%).  PBI and DS fillets go mainly to US domestic market, and their production is very stable.  It's necessary to mention that biggest European buyers prefer American suppliers and make long term contracts. 

The fillet export slowed in October.  At the same time it was noted that average price went down. Some shipments were sold lower than $3.00 / kg FAS - very low price.  It is also important that export volume have reached 93.6 th. MT level, 29% more than 2010.  American experts are sure 2011 in total will be record high.  Average export price was $3.05.

Frozen fillet export from USA to ЕС in 2010-2011

It's really interesting that fillet export grew with decrease of supply to Asia.  Export to Korea was decreased two times to 3.4 th. MT.

Export volume of frozen pollock to China increased twofold to 18.7 th. MT, and price reached $2.55 / kg.  It happened because of general shortage of MSC certified raw material for double frozen fillet.

52% of HG was delivered to China while almost all fillet was delivered to Europe.  Low prices combined with MSC certificate pushed Russian and Chinese product out of this market.  Major volume came to Germany and the Netherlands, typical price level was $3.20-3.25 / kg.

Pollock roe

Export volume for the first 9 months was restricted with 15.5 th. MT, though it was 42% more than in 2010.  It's unclear why average price was 4% lower than a year ago, though auction price was 15-20% higher.  Japanese and Korean customs statistics give very much the same figures (15.0 th. MT), Chinese statistics is unclear. As usual, it is difficult to compare figures as Chinese statistics includes ALL roes, including salmon, and Japanese/Korean unite pollock and cod roes.

Import of frozen roes to China from USA and Russia in 2010-2011

Looking at the table it can be easily seen that average prices for August-September were good enough for salmon roe, i.e. substantial part of the 3.2 th. MT was not pollock roe.

Import of APO roe to Japan, China and Korea from USA in 2010-2011

If we look at total statistics March-September for all the roes produced in 2011, salmon roes will not be that significant as total shipment volume reached 31.7 th. MT., 7% (or 2.0 th. MT) more than 2010.